Saturday, 29 January 2011

Re-Invention

After last weeks dismal performance, ilovestevepalmer has been put out to pasture and in it's place arrives Boom or Bust.
No more picking short singles trying to create a better betting strike rate than Messi or Ronaldo's La Liga goalscoring exploits, from now on it's large accumulators for little money, trying to catch the bookies out with our stupifying knowledge of the sporting world.
Sticking to what we think we know best first up with a weekend football acc:

ASIA CUP OUTRIGHT AUSTRALIA
F.A CUP FIXTURE BOLTON WANDERERS
LIGUE 1 FIXTURE LORIENT
SERIE A FIXTURE INTER MILAN
SERIE A FIXTURE AC MILAN


Australia as a footballing nation will be desperate to take the spoils from this afternoons final appearance against Japan. Recent meetings have been split, 2 wins a piece and a draw. The Aussies cruised through their semi-final, beating Uzbekistan 6-0 while Japan had to struggle against S.Korea eventually going through on penalties. Also in the Socceroos favour is the big game experience that their starting 11 carries, plenty of EPL and European competition, but the safety first option of taking Australia to lift the trophy covers any spoiling tactics or nervousness the sides may field.
Bolton have not lost a home F.A Cup tie in the last 2 seasons and Wigan are rather bravely/stupidly fielding a much weakened side, that factor coupled with Wigans rather tepid cup record places this one in the home banker list.
Lorient v Brest I will not try and kid you that I'm anywhere near an expert on French football, but I know a man who is. James Eastham who writes a French football column for various magazines, put this up as his best bet of the weekend on his Betfair column, a link to said column can be found @james_eastham on Twitter or on the Betfair website.
Saturday night Italy's attacking force of Ibra, Robinho, Cassano roll into Catania unbeaten in their last 10 away games in all competions. Catania's home record this season is no disgrace but in recent weeks, Inter and Juve have both left having collected 3 points each and AC will not want to give anymore encouragment to the Serie A chasing pack.
Inter milan have responded to the recent chanage of manager, Leonardo coming in for Rafa Benitez and cajoling the side back into winning ways. A slight blip v Udinese came on the back of a few wins in a short space of time and although Palermo have at times restricted Inter a single point in some of their recent meetings, they haven't beaten the home side since 2005 and Internazionale have won their last 6 homes in all competitions.
17.26 BETFRED 15.87 SPORTINGBET 17.63 WILLIAM HILL
Now with not a lot of other sports taking a bit of a backburner this weekend I have put those five footy teams in a seperate acca with one other selection for a 6 timer:

AUSTRALIAN TENNIS OPEN FINAL ANDY MURRAY

Murray has won the last 3 meetings with Novak Djokovic, all on hard courts and all with some degree of comfort. Yes Nole has been here before and won it, but Murray is featuring in his 3rd major final and I believe he had his one struggle in his semi final whereas Djokovic may have left his final performance on the court v Federer in the semis. As a 6 fold this more than doubles the returns from the football alone.
35.89 WILLIAM HILL 32.79 SPORTINGBET 34.07 BETFRED

Good luck if you're punting.

Saturday, 22 January 2011

Dad Said....

Very quiet.
Since last saturdays failings, Notts County 0-0 v Southampton and the treble consisting of a win, a loss and a draw, ilovestevepalmer has kept a pretty low profile during the following week.
Stoke were put up as a fancy at a decent price in their FA Cup tie v Cardiff City but they decided the extra half hour was just what they needed, so waited till extra time to put 2 past the Bluebirds.
The lack of picks midweek is not just a bit of a sulk either, as hopefully many others are noticing, January is as much of a stretch as December with all the catching up to do financially, so powder has to be spread elsewhere as opposed to where I'd like to chuck it.
Football wise, Saturday is proving difficult and the picks are not carrying a huge amount of confidence.

BARCLAYS PREMIER LEAGUE TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR v Newcastle Utd 3p.m k.o 6/5 general

I'd love to back this pick with a few stats and opinions, but aside from a recent league cup tie Spurs don't have a great record at St. James'.
As far as opinions go, Harry Redknapp has to agree, 3 points is whats required from a trip to Newcastle if he truly does believe his side are capable of breaking the duopoly of Man U and Chelsea and comparing the two possible starting XI's, 11/10 should be a great price, makes me think some odds compilers are Geordies (not like Newcastle fans to get caught up in unrealistic expectations?)

SOCCER SATURDAY DOUBLE HUDDERSFIELD + SOUTHAMPTON 3p.m k.o general 2/1.

2 strong challengers for the League 1 title this season and both should keep good runs going this afternoon.

OVER 2.5 GOAL TREBLE PORTSMOUTH V LEEDS/CARDIFF V WATFORD/CHARLTON V PLYMOUTH

Not a usual bet for us but a better option than sticking someone in our win bets that we don't have much faith in and also the over goals stats in these games show up strongly. Minimum stakes.

Look out for other sports picks posted up on Twitter later this weekend @rudgey76, there'll be NFL, European footy and maybe a bit of tennis and rugby union.
Some good horseracing at Ascot today and after our horse people put up a knocking good bet with Binocular last Saturday, I'll be checking in again with @KeejayOV @wayward_lad @theuphillbattle and @narrowthefield to see what they@ve come up with, but the final word will go to Fast Freddie, when asked last night if he fancied putting anything up as a selection today all he said was, "just follow Geraghty tomorrow son, just follow Geraghty," could be prophetic or pathetic.

Good luck with your bets and COME ON!!

Saturday, 15 January 2011

More ups and downs.....

Late Sunday afternoon bets got off to flyer, we put Man City's F.A Cup tie v Leicester as an over 2.5 goals pick, both teams duly obliged before half time, leaving us thinking we were on for a good evening.
Unfortunately Ali Carter never really got into anywhere near his best shape v Peter Ebdon and the Philly Eagles let down our NFL double.
A joy to watch Sunday evening, despite the loss to our accounts, was Real Madrid v Barcelona, we took a chance with Villareal +1.5 and at one stage fancied us to be collecting as the Yellow Submarines twice went in front, but when the 3rd Real goal went in it felt fairly inevitable a 4th would soon follow.
Just a quick point regarding watching Real Madrid, I prefer to watch Real than Barca!!
At least Mourinho's men give the opposition the ball sometimes, sometimes they have to really try, watching Barcelona these days, in League action, carries a certain amount of inevitability that takes any fun out of trying to guess a bet.
At least one more win for us Sunday in the BDO Darts final where we picked over 11 sets and Wolfie ended up winning 7-5.
Into the working week and our Masters snooker betting resumed with a handicap pick on Graham Dott 1.5 in front of John Higgins, which the bald Scot didn't need as he beat Higgins outright. The same snookering day saw our ante post pick, Mark Williams take up the challenge and fail, leaving me free to back The Rocket to cruise to outright victory, with no Higgins or Selby to stand in his way. Anyway, that one went the same way as our other ante post Masters bet when Ronnie lost to little Mark Allen.
We followed that up with a punt on Marco Fu to beat "On Fire" Maguire, I think Maguire has the ability to be a world number one but he just doesn't have the same mental setup as a John Higgins or other such battlers. Fu won. The results at Wembley so far in the week had seen every bookies favourite beaten, so on that reckoning, I decided Tuesday was the day they both obliged, a lumpy double on Robertson and Murphy to do the bizzo fell at the Jamie Cope fence, in what has been described on Twitter at the time as a turgid game of snooker.
As back up to chancey bets on Tuesday, I went in with a shorty to guarantee a return.
South Africa to beat India in their first ODI eventually landed comfortably and I would be suprised if they didn't win the next too.
After seeing Villareal's gallant performance at the Bernabeau, Wednesday night saw them take on Seville, who recently improved almost took my money, but I plumped for Villareal. The game ended 3-3 which I probably should have seen coming with the way I ummed and ahhed.
The following night Real were back in action, taking on their Madrid neighbours in the Copa del Rey and I expected plenty of changes to the Real lineup and went with Athletico +1.5/2. Real won 3-1 so we got half our stake back.
Back to the snooker and I didn't fancy Jamie Cope to improve his performance sufficiently to take out Mark King who had beaten Mark Selby in trhe first round, he did, killing another double after Ding had seen us through the first leg.

SOCCER SATURDAY TREBLE LEEDS + SHEFF WEDS + CHESTERFIELD
Three homes to give us some interest this afternoon, all 3 0'clock kick offs.

LEAGUE ONE FIXTURE NOTTS COUNTY v Southampton

Another 3 o'clock kick off, but this single just minimum stakes. It just stood out to me as Notts County were a little overpriced at 6/1. Paul Ince has got them back into winning ways and although the Saints have been imperious in League One of late, no side is unbeatable and it's a funny old game.

Lots of action again this weekend including the great Kauto Star gunning for his 5th King George at Kempton and all the people I follow on Twitter regarding geegee's are betting for places, check out @wayward_lad @KeejayOV @theuphillbattle for their opinions which I trust with my hard earned.
Along with the unanimous verdict on Kauto, the reigning Champion Hurdler seems to be down as a banker amongst these three.

Stay tuned to @rudgey76 on Twitter for more bets posted on all the sporting action this weekend and good luck if you're having a punt yourself.

C'MON!!!

Sunday, 9 January 2011

Weekend Update

Just a quick catch up on yesterdays blog and twitter bets.

Arsenal -2 was embarrassingly wide of the mark, the home side seemed to approach the game with a fairly relaxed attitude compared to the intensity Leeds showed and Arsenal although dominating possession were unable to create many clear cut openings. LOSER.
Our F.A Cup treble was affected within minutes of the blog being posted, by the announcement of Woy leaving Liverpool and King Kenny returning! I would still have backed Utd mind you, but even though Everton comfortably saw off their lower league opposition, Newcastle from various reports were shocking in defeat to Stevenage, meaning the acca was gone before the final leg today. LOSER.
Then it started getting good, 2 singles posted, Reading to beat West Brom and Brighton to beat Portsmouth both came in leaving us in front with our Gridiron Playoff acca yet to start. WINNERS.
Unfortunately our 4 team rollup on this weekends NFL Wildcard games didn't make it past the first matchup! The 1/6 New Orleans Saints got turned over by the Seattle Seahawks, dumping last years winners out at the first post season hurdle. Due to the late kickoff of the second game yesterday, Indianapolis at home to NY Jets, we didn't see our outsider pick for that game win and because I wasn't paying attention to the Saints going out, I missed the opportunity of backing the Jets singularly! LOSER.
Beyond the blog we posted a couple of bets on Twitter that caught my eye as the day progressed.
Deportivo draw no bet v Barcelona was just a case of me looking at historical results, with a couple going the home sides way and the thinking that even Barca can't stay unbeaten away from home all season. LOSER.
Over 41.5 points in the Premiership Rugby match between Leicester and Northampton seemed a good thing but only just got over the line with about 5 minutes remaining, a win is a win though. WINNER.
All in all, we finished a little in front for the weekend, mainly due to a couple of Cup shocks, hopefully improvement for today.
So far today, all Twitter posted, we have Man Utd in 90 minutes, BDO Darts Final to feature 11 or more sets and an ante post wager on the Masters snooker, with more to come including a double on our remaining NFL selections.

Keep Twitter posted.

COME ON!!

Saturday, 8 January 2011

Packed Full of Jam!!

A brief synopsis of the past weeks gambling will reveal a not too bad week.
Bank Holiday Monday a footy treble consisting of QPR, Posh and Port Vale was denied by a late, late Bristol City equaliser at Loftus Road, but our away single on Watford broke us close enough to level for a punt on that nights Darts World Championship final. I'm not a great darts fan but can't resist a punt on a two horse race, went with the outsider of the pair, Adrian Lewis, who duly obliged.
That left us feeling like we were making progress with picking form, so Wednesday night I picked overs at St. James' and Bolton to win at home, Stam scoring with 10 minutes to go denying a 2 from 2 evening with Newcastle being 3 up by halftime.
Thursday brought along holiday fixtures in Italy and Spain, a lunchtime kickoff for AC Milan gave us an early opportunity to swell funds and they duly obliged clinching 3 points late on against Cagliari, attempted to play up those winnings by backing Espanyol in their Copa del Rey game v Athletic Madrid, which failed by finishing a draw and siding with Inter, managed for the first time by Leonardo, at home v Napoli.
A late start to Friday was guaranteed by the wonderful scenes Down Under as Englands great cricket side finally put the Baggy Greens out of their Ashes misery, hopefully World Cup glory awaits for them, with my money firmly attached ante post.
Started Friday ridiculously backing in the Asian Championships, teams no-one are familiar with and losing. To redeem ourselves we turned to the Aviva Premiership with a couple of bets sourced from third parties, looking back the unders is never a bet I'm happy placing but the handicap of +3 for Sale Sharks v Newcastle was quite a strong fancy and took us roughly just about in front from the start of the week, going into this F.A Cup weekend.

It's a huge sporting weekend and I will be spreading myself fairly thinly so all picks will be minimum stakes and brief in description.

F.A CUP TREBLE NEWCASTLE + EVERTON + MAN UTD

2 on Saturday and Utd on Sunday. I'm trusting the Toon and the Toffees to have too much for lower league opposition away from home and Utd couldn't be playing Liverpool at a better time with uncertainty over Woy's future and generally the team not playing well.

F.A CUP SINGLE READING v West Bromwich Albion

Minimum stake, Albion struggling with injuries and form will be entirely focused on Premier League safety and have twice previously gone out of this competition at Reading's hands.

F.A CUP SINGLE BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION v Portsmouth

Pompey are struggling to field a full team at the moment and despite some brave performances, the amount of football being played recently must be taking its toll and Brighton will fancy their chances at home with their current League form holding them steady at the top of League 1.

F.A CUP SINGLE ARSENAL -2 v Leeds Utd ITV 12:45p.m k.o

Arsenal have dished out some beatings to Leeds over recent years and their desperation for trophies this season will, as in the League Cup, see Wenger name a strong starting line up. Leeds will have one eye on keeping up their back to back promotion push in the Championship and may shuffle their pack slightly.

NFL WILDCARD PLAYOFF ACCA NEW ORLEANS SAINTS + BALTIMORE RAVENS + NEW YORK JETS + PHILADELPHIA EAGLES Starts 9:30 p.m tonight

This bet sourced from a third party consists of what would normally be 3 singles avoiding the short priced New Orleans, but such a full weekend leaves us taking a bit of a chance. The Ravens and Eagles are favourites for their matches but backable prices, the Jets are definite single material if anything goes wrong with the Saints.

Just a quick mention to Fast Freddy, our Horse Racing tipster, he has put 2 up in the Welsh National at Chepstow today, Watamu Bay and Maktu and his nap is French Opera at Sandown in the big handicap of the day.

Good luck if anybody follows.

COME ON!!!

Monday, 3 January 2011

KEEP ON KEEPING ON.....

Not great Saturday, Forest managing a draw from 2 down and Hull losing at home letting down our 5 team acca and Manchester United only just doing enough once again, winning rather fortunately, in my opinion, by just the one goal v W.B.A.

Onwards and upwards, lots of League football today and first up,

NPOWER CHAMPIONSHIP WATFORD v Scunthorpe Utd 3p.m k.o 5/4 Betfred 6/5 W.Hill 5/4 Totesport

I'm a little suprised to not find the Hornets a slight shade of odds on considering the current form of both sides, the Irons are rock bottom of the Championship form table with just one win in their last 6 games and that coming away at Burnley, resulting in Brian Laws getting removed from his post.
Watford are currently sitting in the playoff places on the back of picking up 13 points from a possible 18 over this busy football period, scoring 13 conceding just 4 in their last 4 games alone. The only concern being Watford have quite a young squad and so many games in such a short space of time may catch up with them.

BANK HOLIDAY TREBLE Q.P.R + PETERBOROUGH + PORT VALE
3 homes that should, fingers crossed, give us a decent run for our money in the 3 o'clock kick offs. Vale and Rangers are both coming into games off the back of away losses and Posh are picked mainly due to their ability to score and Walsall's dismal season so far.
3.95 Betfred 4.08 W.Hill 3.85 Totesport

Hopefully these couple of bets will get the New Year up and running for us.
Good Luck with whatever you're punting today.
C'mon!

Saturday, 1 January 2011

All Too Infrequent

All too infrequent, both blogs to this post and winners in the second half of 2010.
After recent bouts of free bet misfortune, I have been doubting the strenth of my convictions but firmly believe in the old adage, "If you don't shoot you can't score.

Today I will be dabbling lightly in C4's televised action but will be taking advice from better informed racing people than myself, namely @KeejayOV @Narrowthefield @Carltelewin or anybody sounding remotely affirmative about a selectio.

Footy wise,

Barclay English Premier League MANCHESTER UTD -1 v W.B.A 12:45 p.m k.o Sky Sports. 6/5 Betfred 6/4 W.Hill 11/10 Totesport

West Brom are on an alarming slide back towards the relegation zone after being one of a whole host of teams to touch the dizzying heights of the top 8 this season and their reluctance to set out to spoil could play into the hands of a Utd side keen to wipe the disappointment of Tuesdays late leveller from Lee Bowyer of Birmingham City. I see Utd winning this 2 or 3 to nil.

Soccer Saturday Acca Man City + Tottenham + Hull + Nottm For + Southampton

Man City and Spurs are in there as shorties just to boost the returns but the 3 remaining selections all at home and are sides that are heading in the right direction in recent games, I'll probably have a larger stake on the treble with a smaller stake including the 2 Premiership teams.

Hopefully this is the first of a regular winning post in 2011, thanks for reading and good luck!

COME ON!!!